FXUS64 KOUN 111703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1103 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Veered low level flow will aid in bringing some warmer air eastward
into the area from the higher terrain to our west. Although there
will be some mid/high clouds overhead, temperatures still expected
to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s across Oklahoma and north
Texas this afternoon.

A very weak surface boundary will also slide south into the area,
but will only act to create a wind shift as it moves toward the I-44
corridor by afternoon. This boundary will wash out this evening with
south winds returning areawide overnight. This will begin to bring
higher dewpoints back northward into the area and along with
abundant high clouds will keep temperatures a bit warmer than the
last couple of days.


(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Models still depict large upper trough dropping south across the
intermountain west and closing off as go into the day Tuesday. Ahead
of this low WAA will develop, bringing a chance of some light rain
as early as late Tuesday night to western parts of the area. These
chances develop farther east as we go through the day Wednesday and
possibly Thursday with a continuation of modest WAA and some higher
precip amounts, especially across west Texas into western Oklahoma.

However, overall confidence remains modest at best as models
continue to disagree with the track of this upper low as we go into
the second half of the week. Some drop it southeast across the Rio
Grande, limiting precip chances across the area by late week. Others
maintain a more northern track, traversing east closer to the Red
river and therefore maintain rain chances into the weekend. Either
way currently with limited cold air, all the precip that does occur
looks to remain liquid.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through
the entire forecast period. Surface winds will be generally light
and variable with increasing southeast winds at 5-10 kts by 17Z.
However, terminal KCSM will have a north-northeast surface wind
at 10 kts through 00Z.


Oklahoma City OK  57  34  57  41 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         60  31  57  42 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  61  34  62  45 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           59  27  54  37 /   0   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     56  31  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  35  61  39 /   0   0   0   0