FXUS64 KOUN 270750 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across western Oklahoma this morning close to a region of mid-level warm advection within a sufficiently moist/uncapped layer. Most of this early morning development will initiate across southwest Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, but western Oklahoma may see some of this activity progress across the 100th meridian before dissipating by late morning. Also, cannot rule out a brief morning shower or weak storm close to Ponca City and Stillwater close to evolving upper low. Patchy fog and low clouds will be possible again this morning across southeast portions of Oklahoma, and a little farther north and west into central Oklahoma. What fog is able to develop should be confined to low lying areas and should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise. After a late morning and early afternoon break, additional thunderstorm development is forecast by a few high-res models over the Panhandles late this afternoon and evening, flirting with or moving into western Oklahoma and western north Texas with a southeasterly trajectory. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon east of I-35, closer to upper low near northeast Oklahoma. None of the storms are expected to be severe. There are some signals for additional shower and thunderstorm development across north-central into central Oklahoma late tonight into Sunday morning. However, with confidence fairly low, will not include PoPs for tonight. They could be added later today if model trends support it. Temperatures today and tonight are expected to be similar to yesterday, which will likely be the last day for below average highs for at least several days.&& .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 As northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas upper low departs the region, so too will the break in the heat. Fairly quick warming trend into 100+F highs will spread over the region the first few days of the new week. Some 100 degree highs are likely Sunday across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. While the dewpoints in many of the models may be a little too high outside of far southeast Oklahoma, where afternoon dews of 70-74F are forecast, they will still be high enough farther north and west to create heat indices near and greater than 105. This would yield the likelihood of heat advisories next week. The higher heat indices are still expected across the eastern half of our forecast area. Operational medium range models are still forecasting the upper ridge to retrograde west and north, yielding more in the way of northerly flow aloft for the Southern Plains. The GFS is the most aggressive in bringing troughs around the ridge, with surface reflections of weak frontal boundaries moving into Oklahoma by the end of next week. The ECM is also showing this possibility, but less pronounced. Given the time of year and mean ridge position, along with ensemble output, the greater potential for any substantial cooling and/or rain chances appear to be north and east of our forecast area. Thus, we will ride with the NBM and keep 100s commonplace through Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Expect to see some stratus and associated MVFR ceilings develop late tonight into Saturday morning from the southeast toward central Oklahoma. Otherwise, light winds overnight with a slight increase from the southeast during the day tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 89 72 95 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 94 72 98 76 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 94 73 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 93 71 100 75 / 30 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 90 71 96 76 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 89 72 94 75 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30