FXUS64 KOUN 111703 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1103 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Veered low level flow will aid in bringing some warmer air eastward into the area from the higher terrain to our west. Although there will be some mid/high clouds overhead, temperatures still expected to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon. A very weak surface boundary will also slide south into the area, but will only act to create a wind shift as it moves toward the I-44 corridor by afternoon. This boundary will wash out this evening with south winds returning areawide overnight. This will begin to bring higher dewpoints back northward into the area and along with abundant high clouds will keep temperatures a bit warmer than the last couple of days. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Models still depict large upper trough dropping south across the intermountain west and closing off as go into the day Tuesday. Ahead of this low WAA will develop, bringing a chance of some light rain as early as late Tuesday night to western parts of the area. These chances develop farther east as we go through the day Wednesday and possibly Thursday with a continuation of modest WAA and some higher precip amounts, especially across west Texas into western Oklahoma. However, overall confidence remains modest at best as models continue to disagree with the track of this upper low as we go into the second half of the week. Some drop it southeast across the Rio Grande, limiting precip chances across the area by late week. Others maintain a more northern track, traversing east closer to the Red river and therefore maintain rain chances into the weekend. Either way currently with limited cold air, all the precip that does occur looks to remain liquid. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the entire forecast period. Surface winds will be generally light and variable with increasing southeast winds at 5-10 kts by 17Z. However, terminal KCSM will have a north-northeast surface wind at 10 kts through 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 57 34 57 41 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 60 31 57 42 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 61 34 62 45 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 59 27 54 37 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 56 31 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 61 35 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...68