FXUS61 KPBZ 080756 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 356 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An extended dry period is expected for the upcoming week, with slowly moderating temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: -Dry and seasonably cool today. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Upper level trough will remain over the region today as broad surface high pressure builds into the Midwest. The coldest air aloft will shift to the northeast this morning, allowing for weak warm air advection behind it. Temperatures will still remain well below normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: -Clear and dry weather is expected through Tuesday ------------------------------------------------------------------- A ridge axis over the Midwest is expected to shift east into the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday, allowing temperatures to moderate. Monday, temperatures will still remain slightly below normal, but by Tuesday above average temperatures are anticipated. Probability of temperatures >=80F is 80% to 95% over eastern Ohio and portions of West Virginia/Pennsylvania. Temperatures could exceed into the upper-80s over eastern Ohio if strong subsidence develops during peak heating (dew points drop into the mid-40s/30s). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather and above average temperatures through next weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles indicate a persistent ridge across NE CONUS will maintain dry weather through the long term period. Operational models differ on placement and handling of a southern stream low towards the beginning of next weekend, though ensembles generally agree on maintaining the ridge across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Temperatures are expected to average above seasonable levels through the period with the high 500mb heights in place. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR is expected through the period with high pressure. The one exception may be river valley fog near LBE/MGW, though the probability for this remains low. After dawn, any lingering river valley fog would quickly dissipate. Light winds overnight may become breezy again late Sunday morning and afternoon as boundary layer mixing and a gradient wind north of PIT combine to produce gusts to 15-20 kts. .Outlook... VFR conditions will persist through much of the next week under the influence of high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22 LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley