FXUS61 KPHI 081651 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1151 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... The center of high pressure will slide to our south through Saturday. A warm front lifts across our region Saturday night into Sunday, followed by a potent cold front sweeping through Sunday night. High pressure builds in later Monday and continues into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Fair weather the rest of today. Heights will continue to rise today and the column will warm as thicknesses increase with an upper ridge axis sliding overhead. High pressure off to the south will gradually slide offshore and provide a light south/southeast gradient wind the rest of today. Filtered sunshine with high clouds will give way to mostly sunny skies later this afternoon, and coupled with warm advection in the southerly flow, high temperatures will be 8-10 degrees warmer than Thursday in the low to mid 50s. Continuing warm advection and increased moisture will lead to a slightly warmer night than Thursday night with lows in the low to mid 30s. Dew point depressions will be quite small, and with wind going light to calm, some patchy fog is again possible. The wrench in that part of the forecast will be increasing cloud cover for the second half of the night that may put a halt to otherwise efficient radiational cooling conditions. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Guidance indicates a coastal front will start developing over the region by early Saturday, with cool, moist air mass stalling over much of the CWA with warmer air riding over it on the south to southeast flow. This likely results in low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog or mist/drizzle early Saturday. Some of this may break as the day progresses, especially across the Delmarva and southern NJ where the front may creep northward, but near and north of the I-95 corridor clouds may hang tough and temps will struggle. Thus, not expecting much rise compared to today, with temps mostly near 50, but southern locales where the front lifts north may rise 5-10 more degrees. Strong trough and cold front will begin to influence the weather more noticeably Saturday night, with increasing high and mid clouds. The warm front will still be struggling to lift north, so cooler temps prevail, but we will stay above freezing at least, with 30s north and 40s elsewhere. Some patchy fog/drizzle/mist may again develop late Saturday night. Sunday, the warm front is finally sent well north of the region as the southerly low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold front strengthens rapidly. This will bring southerly winds which may gust 30-40 mph along with increasing coverage of showers and possibly even some embedded thunderstorms. The forcing with the upper trough is quite potent and moist flow significant, so locally heavy rain may start overspreading the area. The southerly flow should bring plenty of warmer air northward as well, so temps surge into the 60s for most. However, the most active weather likely waits until after nightfall Sunday night. Southerly winds may gust up to 50 mph along the coast, maybe even a little higher, thanks to the extremely powerful low-level jet. Any stronger cells could even mix down winds up to severe limits. The heaviest rainfall also will occur as the forcing maxes out just ahead of the approaching cold front, with totals likely exceeding 2 inches across much of the area, with localized flooding being a concern along with perhaps some stream/small river flooding in the coming days. A strong push of wind may then occur as the cold front blasts across the region overnight, with widespread wind advisory gusts possible and perhaps some localized gusts near severe limits with the front. Temps likely stay in the 50s to low 60s until the front passes, then rapidly drop into the 40s. A quick changeover to snow with modest accumulation is possible late in the Poconos. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Storm system will rapidly pull away on Monday, with lingering breezy conditions and showers possible in the morning, then increasing sunshine by afternoon. Temps will remain cool, in the 40s. The remainder of next week looks quite quiet as Canadian high pressure dominates. Temps will be slightly below normal, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s, and there is little to no chance of any precipitation Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... This afternoon... VFR. High clouds decreasing into the evening. Light and variable winds becoming southeast at 5 to 8 knots. High confidence otherwise. Tonight... VFR with some scattered high level clouds. Wind becoming light and variable to calm. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday...Sub-VFR possible with low clouds and patchy fog especially early. Winds southerly 5-10 kts. Low confidence. Sunday...Sub-VFR likely with low clouds and patchy fog possible early and widespread rain by late afternoon, with intervals of IFR likely. Southerly winds 5-10 kts increase to 20-30 kts with gusts possibly up to 40 kts late. Low confidence. Monday...VFR conditions likely return later in the day if not sooner. Winds west-northwesterly around 20 kts with gusts to 35 kts. Moderate confidence. Tuesday...VFR likely. Winds westerly around 10 kts. High confidence. Wednesday...VFR likely. Winds westerly around 10 kts. High confidence. && .MARINE... No marine headlines expected through tonight. South to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Fair weather. Seas 2-3 feet. Outlook... No marine headlines expected through Saturday night. Winds south-southwest 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Seas 2-3 feet. Southerly winds increase through the day Sunday with sustained winds of 25-30 kts by late afternoon along with gusts reaching gale force late. Waves building to 5-9 ft. Southerly winds peak at 35-40 kts with gusts possibly reaching storm force Sunday night before cold front passes, then winds swing around to westerly late and drop off to 25- 30 kts with gusts dropping back to low-end gales. Seas may reach 12 ft briefly, and a line of squalls may also cross the waters during the night. Westerly winds 20-25 kts on Monday with gusts near gale force early, dropping off slowly as the day progresses. Waves diminishing to 5-9 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger Tuesday with westerly winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts and waves up to 5 ft. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions likely return Wednesday with westerly winds around 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts with waves 2-4 ft. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Brudy/RCM NEAR TERM...Brudy/PO SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...Brudy/RCM/PO MARINE...Brudy/RCM