FXUS61 KRLX 111812 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 112 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure brings drier conditions late today into tonight. A dry cold front crosses Tuesday night, followed by high pressure for the balance of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1240 PM Monday... Light upslope snow showers and some patchy drizzle will continue to taper off this afternoon. Once precipitation comes to an end, drier weather is expected for the rest of the day as the axis of a shortwave trough shifts east overhead and surface high pressure builds in from the south. Cloud cover will slowly erode from southwest to northeast late today into tonight, then quiet and mostly sunny conditions are expected for Tuesday as high pressure remains in control. The presence of a cold air mass, combined with clearing skies, should allow temperatures to dip into the teens to mid 20s overnight. Thereafter, southerly flow accompanying the surface high allows warmer air to invade the CWA. This should result in milder temperatures for Tuesday. Daytime highs on Tuesday are expected to reach mid 40s to low 50s in the lowlands and 30s to mid 40s along the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 112 PM Monday... High pressure briefly gets supplanted by the passage of a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is very limited moisture with the front so no precipitation is expected but another shot of cold/dry Canadian air follows, knocking back our temperatures a few degrees on Wednesday. The clear skies, dry airmass and light winds will promote a chilly night Wednesday night with lows in the teens to low 20s. In fact, I shaved a few degrees off of the NBM low temperature forecast, sending forecast lows down closer to the expected Wednesday afternoon dewpoints. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 112 PM Monday... Strong high pressure rules to end the work week with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures during the day, but plummeting temperatures at night due again to prime radiational cooling conditions Thursday night and Friday night. I again shaved off a few degrees from the NBM both nights. While confidence remains pretty high that Saturday will be dry and mild, models continue to indicate at least some impact from a southern stream system on our area late in the weekend or early next week. Whether that impact is just some clouds, or some form of precipitation remains to be seen. For now, stayed with the NBM which inserts a small threat for showers Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1230 PM Monday... Light snow and some drizzle will continue to diminish in coverage this afternoon, then drier conditions are expected overnight and Tuesday as high pressure gains control over the region. MVFR ceilings are likely to persist through the afternoon, then ceilings start to rise as the cloud deck gradually erodes from southwest to northeast this evening into early Tuesday. Once conditions improve, VFR is expected for the rest of the TAF period. Westerly winds, with a few gusts into the teens will continue this afternoon. Winds back around to the southwest late today, then become calm to light and southerly overnight. During the day Tuesday, 5-12kt flow with occasional 15-20kt gusts is expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGs may fluctuate this afternoon and evening. Brief restrictions to visibility are also possible in snow showers this afternoon. Timing of CIG improvement later today and tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M H M M H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JLB