FXUS61 KRNK 080526 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 126 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will reside over our area for the upcoming week keeping us dry. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 104 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Dry with a mild day and cool night. 2) Patchy frost in the Greenbrier Valley/Burkes Garden area this morning and again late Sunday night. High pressure is going to expand east to cover our area today into tonight with less wind than Saturday. Dry dewpoints will limit any fog to just the river valleys if that. Plenty of sunshine today will bring temperatures up to the 70s for most, with some 60s in the mountains, still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. With the high overhead Sunday night, will likely see temps sink a little lower in a few spots and frost seems possible in the area around Burkes Garden and other elevated valleys in the mountains, but still not enough coverage for an advisory. Lows will be in the 40s for most with mid to upper 30s in the elevated mountain valleys. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for dry weather through the early part of the week with high pressure in control. 2) Patchy frost is possible in Burkes Garden on Monday morning, but temperatures should steadily moderate afterward. Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather across the Mid Atlantic throughout the early part of the week. Temperatures should still remain below normal but begin to moderate as highs will reach the lower 80s in the Piedmont by Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for dry weather through Thursday with temperatures continuing to moderate. 2) Details still remain unclear about any return of moisture by Friday and Saturday, so confidence for rain remains low. High pressure will drift eastward while wedging against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge by Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the models still keep moisture trapped along the Gulf Coast during this time, which will ensure that the Mid Atlantic remains in an ongoing drought. Some guidance does depict the Gulf moisture eventually lifting northward towards Friday and Saturday, but there will still be a dry and cool wedge of high pressure lingering east of the Appalachian Mountains. Thus, confidence still remains low for any notable rain chances into the weekend until more definitive proof can be obtained from the models that the moisture really will survive the trek northward and bring any meaningful amounts. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Sunday... Widespread VFR is expected for the region through 06z Monday. Exception being some fog around LWB. A dry airmass may prevent this so confidence is moderate but kept the LIFR vsbys here, but took out fog at BCB. Winds stay light through the period and mainly out of the NW to W. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions expected through Thursday. Only exception will be late night/early morning mountain valley and river fog...promoting IFR/LIFR from 09Z-13Z at LWB/BCB. && .CLIMATE... As of 100 AM EDT Sunday... Record lows may be close at LYH/DAN this morning and possibly Monday morning. Sunday 09/08/2024 Site Record Low/Year Forecast Bluefield 35 1951 41 Danville 48 1976 49 Lynchburg 45 2017 47 Roanoke 42 1988 46 Blacksburg 35 1988 42 Monday 09/09/2024 Site Record Low/Year Forecast Bluefield 36 1958 42 Danville 45 1944 48 Lynchburg 44 1998 45 Roanoke 42 1944 45 Blacksburg 36 1988 39 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...WP CLIMATE...PM/WP