FXUS61 KRNK 111752
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1252 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will cover the area through Friday. High
temperatures will be below normal today but back above normal
by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1209 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

  - No weather issues except chilly temperatures through Tuesday
    morning

Look for upslope cloudiness to decrease through this evening
with mainly clear skies overnight into Tuesday.

High pressure will be overhead tonight, and winds will decrease
by dusk. Temperatures will bottom out in the 20s areawide with
some teens in the mountains.

Warmer Tuesday as flow turns southwest behind the surface high
with highs closer to normal in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1252 PM EST Monday...

Confidence is high for dry weather throughout this period.

Although an upper level trough should pass to the north across
southeastern Canada during Tuesday night and Wednesday, dry air
and surface high pressure in the Mid Atlantic should keep the
weather tranquil. Temperatures will fall lower on Wednesday
night in the wake of this upper level trough with teens and 20s.
The air mass should moderate a little by Thursday and Thursday
night as the upper level flow becomes more zonal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1252 PM EST Monday...

Confidence is high for dry weather through Saturday, but
confidence is low for the next chance of rain afterwards.

High pressure remains in control across the Mid Atlantic on
Friday. Some upper level ridging will help to push temperatures
a little higher during Friday afternoon. By Saturday, high
pressure will head offshore but still keep conditions dry. The
models continue to struggle with deciphering where a developing
low pressure system along the Gulf Coast will go during Saturday
night into Sunday. A 20-30 percent chance of rain exists for
Sunday through Monday due to the uncertainty of how far north
this moisture may spread from the low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1212 PM EST Monday...

MVFR ceilings in the mountains this afternoon will clear out by
23Z. West-northwest winds stay gusty til 21-23Z, then decreasing
winds overnight.

Look for VFR into Tuesday under high pressure.

High confidence for all aviation parameters.

OUTLOOK...

Looking at VFR through Saturday with no weather systems to
impact our area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/WP