FXUS61 KRNK 062357
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
657 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong northwesterly winds will continue to gust through
tonight, with gusts reaching up to 35 to 50 mph through this
evening, before decreasing during the overnight hours. Stratus
gradually decreases through tonight, but expect more clouds to
arrive for tomorrow and a chance of rain for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Thursday...

Have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire at 7PM and it has
been replaced with a Wind Advisory, which will be in effect
through early Friday morning. Winds still remain gusty,
especially at the higher elevations where gusts in excess of 40
MPH are still occurring. Winds have diminished across the
Piedmont. Winds will gradually decrease across the mountains
through early Friday morning.



As of 200 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) High Wind Warning along the southern Blue Ridge and Roanoke
through this evening.

2) A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the remaining areas
along and west of the Blue Ridge through 4 AM.

Upper trough axis has moved offshore today, but robust NW flow
remains in place over the southern and central Appalachians. NW
winds were gusting to 30 to 55+ mph at times, due to a
combination of strong CAA, deep mixing, and a tight pressure
gradient. Added Roanoke County to the High Wind Warning as they
were approaching high wind warning criteria (58 mph). The High
Wind Warning goes until 7 PM, at which point these counties will
likely be converted to a Wind Advisory. Winds slacken off some
tonight as high pressure builds in, but will still be gusting to
25 to 35 mph at times from the WNW overnight. Tomorrow, winds
will be lighter and from the SW.

A large area of very dense stratus still covered the mountains
and parts of the piedmont, however it was gradually breaking
up east of the Blue Ridge. Expect stratus to linger over the
mountains through tonight, then be replaced with cirrus by
morning. Snow is still falling over SE WV but will end later
this afternoon.

Tonight will be quite cold with continued breeziness and
temperatures in the low to upper 20s for the mountains and the
low 30s for the piedmont. Friday will be much warmer with
highs ranging from the mid 40s to upper 50s. Skies will be
cloudy most of the day as an elevated warm front and weak low
pressure system treks eastward across the TN Valley. Rain
showers may just reach SE WV by Friday evening.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Upslope rain showers transition to snow showers by late
Saturday.

2. Periods of precipitation possible Sunday along and south of
VA/NC border. Dry conditions return late Sunday.

By late Friday evening, a surface low will be tracking
northeastward into the Midwest, which will lift a warm front
into the Ohio Valley. This will advect some moisture northward,
and with flow turning westerly, will lead to some upslope rain
showers across the mountains late Friday night into Saturday
morning. The 500mb trough pulls off the coast of eastern Canada
through Saturday, and flow aloft turns more northwesterly over
the forecast area, bringing an influx of cold air to the region.
With the colder air, expect a transition from rain to snow
across the mountains late Saturday, mainly for Greenbrier County
WV, with snowfall accumulations of a few tenths of an inch
possible, probabilities of 24 hour accumulations ending Sunday
morning exceeding an inch are between 10% to 20%.

During the forecast period, an upper low deepens over the
southwestern US and tracks eastward into the Gulf Coast states
by Sunday. The surface front looks to bring some moisture into
the Carolinas by early Sunday. How far north this moisture
makes it is uncertain, as there will be a surface high building
into the Mid Atlantic from the west, which could limit the
northward extent of precipitation on Sunday. At this time,
precipitation looks to stay along and south of US Highway 460
in VA, with the highest chances along and south of the VA/NC
state line. With a cold airmass overhead Sunday morning,
precipitation across the mountains of NW NC and SW VA will
likely start as a brief period of snow, before transitioning to
rain, as temperatures increase through the day. Westerly winds
Sunday will keep chances for showers across the upslope areas,
and downslope flow will limit coverage of showers over the
Piedmont. That being said, shortwave energy in the 500mb flow
could support periods of showers in the east through Sunday
afternoon. Late Sunday afternoon/evening, surface high pressure
builds in enough to bring precipitation to an end areawide.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the period, with high
temperatures in the Piedmont in the mid to upper 60s, though in
the mid 40s to low 50s in the west. Sunday will be cooler in
the east, but similar temperatures for the west, in the mid 40s
to low 50s across the forecast area. Overnight lows will be near
to below freezing Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Warming temperatures through the beginning of the week, above
normal by midweek.

2. Dry weather for most through at least Wednesday.

3. Forecast uncertainty increases after Wednesday with late week
system.

Surface high pressure builds over the east coast for the
beginning of the work week, and ridging at 500mb increases over
the southeastern US behind the departing shortwave. This will
keep conditions dry over the area through at least Wednesday.
Broad southwesterly flow aloft and at the surface will start a
warming trend in temperatures, reaching to 15 to 20 degrees
above normal by Wednesday.

Midweek, an upper trough deepens and closes off over the central
Plains, and tracking to the east by Thursday. The attendant
surface low looks to move into the Ohio Valley by Thursday,
though there are significant differences in deterministic model
solutions during the latter half of the work week, so forecast
uncertainty increases after Wednesday. However, this looks to be
the next system to bring some precipitation to the area,
although it is too far out in the forecast period to discern
details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Thursday...

MVFR cigs remain across the mountains due to upslope stratus.
This has been slow to diminish and it will continue to slowly
erode through the overnight. All terminals should be VFR by
daybreak on Friday.

Winds remain gusty from the northwest, especially across the
mountains where gusts in excess of 35 knots will continue
through early Friday morning. Winds have decreased a bit east
of the mountains with an occasional gust into the 20 knot range.
Winds should turn more westerly through daybreak Friday and
then to the southwest by Friday afternoon, while gradually
decreasing.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another low pressure system expected to bring rain and sub-VFR
flight conditions to the mountains late Friday night and
Saturday.

High pressure should provide VFR flight conditions on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
     032>035.
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG/SH