FXUS63 KSGF 111711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1111 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Key Messages:

1. Some areas of elevated fire weather this afternoon.

2. Drier and a bit warmer through the week ahead.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Upper level northwesterly flow will begin to become zonal today
and will continue through the coming week. Surface winds will
slowly shift from westerly to southerly. However, surface high
pressure southeast of the region will only slowly begin to
increase low level moisture. With a dry airmass over the area,
elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially with
fine fuels.

Afternoon highs today will climb into the upper 40s to middle
50s. The dry air mass will bring afternoon relative humidity
values in the 25 to 35% range, though light winds should limit
fire weather concerns. Will need to watch areas in the eastern
Ozarks this afternoon as models have been slightly to high with
dewpoints. this occurred yesterday and have used the NBM 5th
percentile for dewpoints today.

With southerly winds, temperatures tonight will be slightly
warmer in the upper 20s in the Mark Twain National forest areas
and the lowers 30 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

The zonal pattern will have established itself and will remain
into mid to late week with daily highs in the 50s and lows in the
30s. This is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal heading into
mid-December. Dry conditions will persist through the much of the
week ahead.

Upper level shortwave ridging will move across the area Thursday
with an upper low digging into Texas. The track of the upper low
will be tied to where precipitation chance develop for Friday into
thew weekend. As of the latest model runs, the track continued to
be south of the Ozarks. This trend has been persistent, keeping
the upper level low south of the area, and thus a drier outlook.
Continue to monitor the forecast for updates.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

For the 18z TAFS, a south to southwest wind around 10 kts will
diminish to light and variable towards sunset, with the light and
variable winds continuing through the remainder of the period. VFR
conditions are expected through the period.