FXUS63 KSGF 050444 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1044 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will push through the region tonight with a return to below normal temperatures through Friday. - Temperatures rebound this weekend ahead of a system that brings rain chances late Sunday into early Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 Scattered to broken cloud cover over southern sections of Missouri early this morning has since eroded. Southwesterly surface flow that was initially responsible for drawing warmer air into the region has turned westerly along a weak cold front/surface trough. Mostly sunny conditions has supported deeper mixing, leading to gusty winds and mild afternoon temperatures. Surface obs show a majority of the gusts peaking around 25 mph with few near-30 mph gusts, along with temperature in the low to mid-50s. The mild air is short-lived today with the arrival of a strong cold front late tonight. A strong surface high is expected to build southeast from the Plains, west of a broad surface low over the Great Lakes. IR satellite and isobaric surface analysis shows the front extending southwest of the low from the Great Lakes into Iowa this afternoon. Hi-res guidance remains on track for frontal passage late this evening with the strength of cold air advection peaking after 04z tonight. There is high confidence that this air mass will be solidly 10-15 degrees (perhaps as much as 20 degrees) below normal (normal highs around 50/normal lows around 30) through Thursday night. NBM quartiles show roughly 5 degrees of spread between the lower quartile and upper quartiles (25th/75th percentile) with lows tonight in mid-teens to mid-20s. Additionally, surface winds stay elevated, especially over eastern sections of the forecast area, where wind fields are stronger and will support gusts along the cold front in the 06z-12z timeframe. Wind chills in the single digits will be widespread through at least the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area with teens running along the MO/AR border early Thursday morning. The coldest of the air will stretch from Thursday into early Friday morning. Northerly flow will persist around the 1040 mb surface high centered over the Dakotas. The ridge works southward through the day, centering overhead Thursday evening into Thursday night. Clear skies and light winds will result in efficient cooling with lows Friday morning ranging from the low-teens to near 20 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 Southwesterly surface flow will wrap around the western periphery of the surface high as it sinks southward during the day Friday. This will mark the beginning of a moderating trend with temperatures, but is expected to be more gradually as mid/upper toughing encompass the northeastern chunk of the CONUS. This continues to result in northwesterly flow aloft, holding temperatures in the 40s. The mid- level ridge continues to strengthen and expand over the southeastern section of the U.S. over the weekend, gradually warming temperatures into the 50s as southwesterly flow deepens. The southeastern ridge may become a player in the overall pattern as we approach the late weekend and early next week. NBM quartiles remain fairly tight through Sunday. The system to watch will be the closed low over the southwestern U.S., which is initially cutoff from steering flow over the U.S./Mexican border. The aforementioned southeastern ridge begins to shift east into the western Atlantic late in the weekend. The close low evolves into a weaker, open shortwave that become more progressive with time and eject northeast through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Global guidance takes a bulk of the moisture to the southeast with precipitation amounts trending lower. This is consequently where spread begin to increase with long range ensembles. Highest chances (60-80%) for rain now only clip southeast sections of the forecast area. Probabilistic LREF data shows a 20-30% chance of reaching or exceeding 0.25 inches of 24 hour rainfall (ending 12pm Monday) running from Springfield to Osage Beach and points east. Beyond Monday, spread continues to with a general trend toward cooler temperatures with cooler air moving in behind the system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 Gusty northerly winds overnight will gradually diminish Thursday morning into Thursday evening. VFR conditions will persist. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Titus