FXUS64 KSHV 111738 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1138 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Surface high pressure continues to dominate the Four State this morning in the wake of the weekend frontal passage. Frigid morning lows in the upper 20s and low 30s have warmed up nicely as 50s trend areawide based on latest observations. A drier airmass and clear skies will help afternoon maxT's reach full potential with values in the upper 50s and low 60s. No major changes needed in this update aside form adjusting hourlies to match latest trends and slightly nudging highs up a degree or two for a few locations. RK && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 407 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Seasonable conditions will return to the Four State Region through the next 36 hours. This is due to a surface ridge axis that will continue eastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, slowly returning surface winds to a light southerly direction overnight. Dew points will respond in kind, but only briefly enough to push the 30-degree isodrosotherm north faster, and make temperature minimums slightly milder (upper 30s). Otherwise, temperature maximums today and tomorrow will remain at or around normal for this time of the year (lower 60s), under sunny afternoon skies. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Surface high across the Ohio River Valley to maintain light east to southeast winds across the ArkLaTex at the start of the long- term period on Tuesday night. As the colder airmass shifts east, temperatures will rebound accordingly with warmer overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday morning. Clouds to increase in coverage on Tuesday night into Wednesday as upper-flow becomes southwest ahead of a broad low digging south into the Rockies. By Thursday, upper-low dives into west Texas setting the stage for the next round of precipitation across the ArkLaTex. Models are coming into better agreement from previous runs on timing of onset of precipitation with the bulk of the rainfall occurring during the Friday night through Saturday timeframe. Interestingly, as the upper-low dives into the northern Gulf of Mexico, cyclogenesis will result in the deepening of a colocated surface low. Winds across the ArkLaTex will take on a northerly component due to convergence into the surface low bringing a reinforcement of cooler air with temperatures through the weekend ranging from highs in the upper 50s to lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Additionally, with a cooler mixing layer in place ahead of the approaching upper-low, thunderstorms will be limited with with most of the precipitation in the form of showers with the heavier rainfall and thunderstorm threat along the warm front east of the surface low in the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions forecast to improve late in the weekend with temps ranging from highs in the lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Airspace wide VFR will prevail the 18z TAF package as SKC holds steady over the region. Pockets of FEW250 are present west of the airspace and will gradually filter in by 00z. General trend for now though is the introduction of the FEW250 layer at and shortly after 00z, becoming a layer of SCT250 that will filter across the airspace after 06z and ahead of 12z. Some guidance even goes as far as BKN250 by 12z while others show a mix of FEW/SCT. Some guidance continues to suggest SKC through the TAF package but this seems to be on the ambitious side given the general trend for some upper level clouds present in the period. As a result, trending conservative beyond 12z for anything higher than SCT until confidence can increase. Terminal winds will remain light, varying between 090 and 150, ranging between 3 to 5 kts. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 60 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 57 32 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 57 35 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 58 32 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 62 38 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 62 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 63 36 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...53