FXUS64 KSHV 111738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1138 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023


Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the Four State this
morning in the wake of the weekend frontal passage. Frigid
morning lows in the upper 20s and low 30s have warmed up nicely
as 50s trend areawide based on latest observations. A drier
airmass and clear skies will help afternoon maxT's reach full
potential with values in the upper 50s and low 60s. No major
changes needed in this update aside form adjusting hourlies to
match latest trends and slightly nudging highs up a degree or two
for a few locations.



(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Seasonable conditions will return to the Four State Region through
the next 36 hours. This is due to a surface ridge axis that will
continue eastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
slowly returning surface winds to a light southerly direction
overnight. Dew points will respond in kind, but only briefly
enough to push the 30-degree isodrosotherm north faster, and make
temperature minimums slightly milder (upper 30s). Otherwise,
temperature maximums today and tomorrow will remain at or around
normal for this time of the year (lower 60s), under sunny
afternoon skies. /16/


(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Surface high across the Ohio River Valley to maintain light east
to southeast winds across the ArkLaTex at the start of the long-
term period on Tuesday night. As the colder airmass shifts east,
temperatures will rebound accordingly with warmer overnight lows
in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday morning. Clouds to
increase in coverage on Tuesday night into Wednesday as upper-flow
becomes southwest ahead of a broad low digging south into the
Rockies. By Thursday, upper-low dives into west Texas setting the
stage for the next round of precipitation across the ArkLaTex.
Models are coming into better agreement from previous runs on
timing of onset of precipitation with the bulk of the rainfall
occurring during the Friday night through Saturday timeframe.

Interestingly, as the upper-low dives into the northern Gulf of
Mexico, cyclogenesis will result in the deepening of a colocated
surface low. Winds across the ArkLaTex will take on a northerly
component due to convergence into the surface low bringing a
reinforcement of cooler air with temperatures through the weekend
ranging from highs in the upper 50s to lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Additionally, with a cooler mixing layer in place ahead
of the approaching upper-low, thunderstorms will be limited with
with most of the precipitation in the form of showers with the
heavier rainfall and thunderstorm threat along the warm front east
of the surface low in the Gulf of Mexico.

Conditions forecast to improve late in the weekend with temps
ranging from highs in the lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. /05/


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Airspace wide VFR will prevail the 18z TAF package as SKC holds
steady over the region. Pockets of FEW250 are present west of the
airspace and will gradually filter in by 00z. General trend for
now though is the introduction of the FEW250 layer at and shortly
after 00z, becoming a layer of SCT250 that will filter across the
airspace after 06z and ahead of 12z. Some guidance even goes as
far as BKN250 by 12z while others show a mix of FEW/SCT. Some
guidance continues to suggest SKC through the TAF package but this
seems to be on the ambitious side given the general trend for
some upper level clouds present in the period. As a result,
trending conservative beyond 12z for anything higher than SCT
until confidence can increase. Terminal winds will remain light,
varying between 090 and 150, ranging between 3 to 5 kts.



SHV  62  38  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  33  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  57  35  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  38  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  36  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  36  64  40 /   0   0   0   0