FXUS64 KSJT 111714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1114 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Winds were light this afternoon as surface high pressure was
moving into South Texas. Look for winds to gradually shift the
the southwest and south at 5 to 10 mph tonight and Monday. The
best radiational cooling areas tonight will be valley areas in
the NW Hill Country and Heartland, where a few areas may fall into
the upper 20s. Outside of the low lying areas, lows will be
mainly in the 30 to 35 degree range. Monday will see a warming
trend back to highs in the mid 60s.


(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

...Heavy Rain Possible For Thursday and Friday With Potential For
Localized Flooding...

Conditions will continue to warm up on Tuesday with increasing
southerly flow at the surface and southwest flow at the mid-levels.
For mid to late week, a pattern change is expected. The good news?
Temperatures will remain well above freezing during this entire time
period so no winter weather is expected. The bad news? Heavy rain
could become a concern, especially Thursday and Thursday night.  At
this point, models are in good agreement in showing an upper-level
low digging in across the Desert Southwest Tuesday night through
Thursday. Southeasterly flow in the low levels ahead of this system
should bring a good fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across
south and west Texas on Wednesday.  Models indicate PWAT values
around 1 inch from Wednesday through Friday with persistent moisture
feed expected. The upper low should progress southeastward across
Texas Thursday night through Saturday.  Strong upper-level support
from the left exit region of the jet streak and diffluent flow ahead
of the upper-level low.  Given the timing of the best support aloft,
he best chance for heavy rain will be Thursday and Friday with 1 to
2 inches possible.  WPC is also hinting at 2-3 inches of rain for
the entire event.  In this scenario, rain chances would start to
wind down by Saturday, as the system moves into the Gulf. This
should be followed by quieter weather for the rest of the weekend.
As always, forecasting dynamic upper-level lows can be challenging
several days out, so the timing and amount of heavy rain will likely
change over the next couple of days.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR with light southeast winds through sunrise tomorrow.
Increasing clouds tomorrow morning, with possible MVFR conditions.


Abilene     36  62  48  55 /   0   0  10  50
San Angelo  34  63  50  57 /   0   0  20  50
Junction    36  63  50  58 /   0   0  10  40
Brownwood   34  63  47  56 /   0   0  10  30
Sweetwater  37  61  50  54 /   0   0  30  70
Ozona       36  58  52  56 /   0   0  20  60
Brady       36  63  49  55 /   0   0  10  40