FXUS64 KSJT 111714 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 125 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Winds were light this afternoon as surface high pressure was moving into South Texas. Look for winds to gradually shift the the southwest and south at 5 to 10 mph tonight and Monday. The best radiational cooling areas tonight will be valley areas in the NW Hill Country and Heartland, where a few areas may fall into the upper 20s. Outside of the low lying areas, lows will be mainly in the 30 to 35 degree range. Monday will see a warming trend back to highs in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 ...Heavy Rain Possible For Thursday and Friday With Potential For Localized Flooding... Conditions will continue to warm up on Tuesday with increasing southerly flow at the surface and southwest flow at the mid-levels. For mid to late week, a pattern change is expected. The good news? Temperatures will remain well above freezing during this entire time period so no winter weather is expected. The bad news? Heavy rain could become a concern, especially Thursday and Thursday night. At this point, models are in good agreement in showing an upper-level low digging in across the Desert Southwest Tuesday night through Thursday. Southeasterly flow in the low levels ahead of this system should bring a good fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across south and west Texas on Wednesday. Models indicate PWAT values around 1 inch from Wednesday through Friday with persistent moisture feed expected. The upper low should progress southeastward across Texas Thursday night through Saturday. Strong upper-level support from the left exit region of the jet streak and diffluent flow ahead of the upper-level low. Given the timing of the best support aloft, he best chance for heavy rain will be Thursday and Friday with 1 to 2 inches possible. WPC is also hinting at 2-3 inches of rain for the entire event. In this scenario, rain chances would start to wind down by Saturday, as the system moves into the Gulf. This should be followed by quieter weather for the rest of the weekend. As always, forecasting dynamic upper-level lows can be challenging several days out, so the timing and amount of heavy rain will likely change over the next couple of days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 VFR with light southeast winds through sunrise tomorrow. Increasing clouds tomorrow morning, with possible MVFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 36 62 48 55 / 0 0 10 50 San Angelo 34 63 50 57 / 0 0 20 50 Junction 36 63 50 58 / 0 0 10 40 Brownwood 34 63 47 56 / 0 0 10 30 Sweetwater 37 61 50 54 / 0 0 30 70 Ozona 36 58 52 56 / 0 0 20 60 Brady 36 63 49 55 / 0 0 10 40 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...SK