FXUS64 KSJT 302300
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Above normal temperatures with gusty south winds through this
    afternoon.

  - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
    evening into early Thursday morning.

  - Expect near normal temperatures Thursday and Friday in the
    wake of a weak cold front. Rain chances will return Friday
    and continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Feels more like April than the end of October with gusty south
winds and temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Cold front will
arrive tonight and bring a chance of showers and storms to
portions of the area. Latest CAMs continue the idea of an area of
convection developing near a San Angelo to Coleman and Brownwood
line late in the evening or more likely just after midnight, with
the coverage expanding as it moves southeast across the Heartland
and Hill Country by sunrise. Have increased POPs for these areas,
as well as expanding the mention of isolated POPs to include San
Angelo as well.

Slightly cooler and drier air mass will settle in behind the
front, allowing temperatures behind the front across the Big
Country to drop into the 50s tonight. Highs tomorrow will be much
closer to seasonal normals and stay in the mid 70s to around 80

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

On Friday, an upper large upper level trough across the western
CONUS will begin to deepen, with an upper level low developing
across the Four Corners region by late Sunday. Ahead of this
feature, surface moisture will quickly increase across the area on
Friday, with dewpoints starting off in the morning in the 40s to
near 50 and increasing to 60 or higher by the afternoon hours.
Expect rain chances to increase late in the day Friday as West
Central Texas remain in southwest flow aloft. Rain chances will
increase even more as we head into the overnight hours. These rain
chances will continue through the weekend, with the highest rain
chances and rain amounts expected across the Big Country. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible as precipitable water values
increase to 1.25 to 1.6 inches. Temperatures will be mild Friday
through Monday, albeit still above seasonal normals, with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

The aforementioned upper level trough/low will track across the
Great Plains late Monday into Tuesday, sending a cold front through
the forecast area late Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Monday, with drier conditions expected
behind the front. In addition, cooler temperatures are expected with
highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 60s to mid 70s and
overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Winds will continue to weaken as we go into the overnight hours. A
cold front will move through the area overnight, bringing
potential thunderstorms to all of our terminals. There is still
uncertainty in how far west and south storms will form along the
front, so we have gone with PROB30 and TEMPO groups for now. KJCT,
KSOA, and KBBD could see MVFR CIGs for a few hours prior to the
front. After the front moves through, we'll see light north winds
and VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  75  53  80 /  30   0  10  30
San Angelo  55  78  56  83 /  20   0  10  30
Junction    59  82  58  83 /  50  20  10  30
Brownwood   56  77  56  79 /  70   0  10  30
Sweetwater  52  74  55  79 /   0   0  10  30
Ozona       58  79  60  80 /  10   0  10  30
Brady       60  78  58  79 /  60  10  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...AP