FXUS65 KSLC 040931 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 331 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1046 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026... - High pressure will keep conditions dry and mild over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the weekend. - A weak storm system will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday, curbing the warming trend and bringing a very low chance of showers. - A more active pattern may develop next weekend. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1046 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026... High pressure centered over southern Utah this evening will remain in place through Sunday while heights continue to rise. Patchy high clouds this evening will clear out late tonight resulting in fewer clouds on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to continue trending slightly upward for Sunday. On Monday, a weakening trough is still progged to make its way into the Great Basin, crossing Utah Monday night through Tuesday. This trough will bring a slight decrease in moisture and spotty light precipitation. The NBM has a 15-25% chance of the mountains seeing 0.05 inches of precipitation or greater, with generally a 5% chance or less in the valleys. High pressure is expected to rebound for late week ahead of a potentially stronger trough for the weekend or early next week. Cluster analysis of global ensembles favor some flavor of trough during this timeframe, but there is still some spread with regards to timing and strength. A stronger/slower solution currently looks more favorable, encompassing around 55% of members. && .AVIATION, Issued 1046 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry and stable conditions along with a few high clouds will continue with light and diurnally driven winds. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable conditions along with a few high clouds will continue with light and diurnally driven winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure remains the dominant feature across the region through Monday, keeping conditions dry areawide, particularly across western and southern Utah where daytime RH values bottom out in the teens. A weather system is expected to traverse through the region late Monday into Tuesday, with isolated showers possible first across northwest Utah overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, before shower and thunderstorm coverage increases across northern Utah on Tuesday afternoon. Very little moisture availability will exist with this system, thus keeping precipitation accumulations overall minimal. Main concerns from storms on Tuesday afternoon include gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph. High pressure redevelops Wednesday through Friday, keeping dry and mild conditions in place through this period. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Cheng AVIATION...Mahan FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity