FXUS62 KTAE 080739 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 339 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 It's really beginning to feel like Groundhog Day around here. As has been the case the past couple of days, a stalled front off our coast will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Those showers then get pushed north over our land areas as the day progresses with some of the rain locally heavy at times. Drier air pushing in from the north will hit a roadblock as it nears a line between Tifton and Dothan. As a result, rain chances will linger for our Florida and southern Georgia counties through the afternoon and into the early evening. Most of the rain should push offshore tonight with a few lingering light showers or areas of drizzle remaining possible over our Florida and southern Georgia Counties. There is the potential for a bit of fog tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much sunshine you get this afternoon. While most areas are forecast to see at least a little bit, the best opportunity for that will be in southeastern Alabama where highs are forecast to climb into the lower to middle 80s; elsewhere, temperatures are forecast to generally remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will range from the middle to upper 60s to the north to the lower 70s to the south. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 The upper level low crawls up the Canadian and northeast US border Monday, with upper level high pressure building over the FL peninsula. This will keep the aforementioned stationary boundary draped and meandering over the Gulf. The name of the game will be, how far north does the boundary surge. Rain chances remain best over the FL counties and perhaps creeping just north of I-10, with thunder chances remaining low. East to northeast flow may keep portions of SW GA and SE AL dry under a mix of sun and clouds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 No major changes to the forecast for this period as unsettled weather looks to continue. An area we will continue to watch is an area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. Guidance at this point continues to have this system organizing into a tropical cyclone early this week (70-80% of development the next 2-7 days). We'll need to watch how this system tracks and interacts with the frontal boundary. Regardless of where it goes, we should continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies through the period and showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures generally look to be in the low to perhaps mid 80s, while overnight lows stay mostly confined to the low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the time being at most TAF sites outside of KTLH tonight. That trend should continue a few more hours before ceilings lower to MVFR just before dawn. Showers are forecast to develop across Florida over the next couple of hours and spread northeast, as has been the trend the past few days. Locally lower ceilings and visibility can be expected within these showers. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at most TAF sites through the morning before lifting to VFR later this afternoon. A return to MVFR ceilings is possible near the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Unsettled weather is expected to continue thanks to a lingering frontal boundary draped across the Northern Gulf. High rain chances remain in the forecast with cells capable of waterspouts, locally gusty winds, lightning, and reduced visibility from heavy rain. Otherwise, look for easterly to perhaps southeasterly moderate to fresh breezes through midweek. There could be a few nights where exercise caution conditions are met. An area of low pressure is also being monitored by the NHC over the Bay of Campeche and has a medium of high of tropical development over the next 2 to 7 days. This system is forecast to move north paralleling the Texas Coast while interacting with the aforementioned front. Depending on the evolution, hazardous marine conditions could materialize early to mid next week. Stay tuned. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Drier conditions are arriving from the north as a cold front crawls through the region. This will lead to breaks in the clouds, less rain, and slightly stronger northeasterly transport winds across our northern districts this afternoon. Meanwhile, abundant cloud cover and passing showers remain possible for our Florida districts, especially the Florida Big Bend, today and will keep poor dispersions around today. Overall, fire weather concerns remain low the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Wet and unsettled weather is forecast for the next several days due to a stalled frontal boundary meandering over the Gulf. Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible each day, primarily for the FL counties. Given the moist airmass in place, we could see a few bouts of heavier rain. Nuisance flooding to perhaps localized areas of flash flooding will be possible, especially for areas that have received higher amounts of rain or over poor drainage or urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 81 71 81 70 / 60 40 30 10 Panama City 82 70 83 71 / 70 40 40 30 Dothan 82 67 82 68 / 40 20 10 10 Albany 79 67 80 66 / 50 30 10 10 Valdosta 80 69 80 69 / 70 40 30 10 Cross City 83 72 82 73 / 70 50 50 20 Apalachicola 81 74 82 73 / 80 60 70 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Reese MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...KR