FXUS62 KTAE 111438
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
938 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
Colder and drier air will continue to push into the area in the wake
of yesterday's cold front. Northerly winds will continue across the
area with high temperatures only forecast to reach the mid 50s to
near 60 across the area despite sunny skies. Tonight seems favorable
for efficient radiational cooling with winds going calm and mostly
clear skies. Therefore, lows are forecast in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Patchy frost will be possible across the area late tonight into
early Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
Ridging aloft will build in over the Caribbean with
a surface high sliding from the MS Valley toward the Southeastern US
with benign conditions expected through the short term. Daytime
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally remain within the
upper 50s in our northernmost AL and GA counties with mid to upper
60s in our FL counties. Overnight lows will trend somewhat warmer on
Tuesday and Wednesday night as moisture recovers somewhat with
Tuesday night lows in the upper 30s to low 40s and widespread mid to
upper 40s Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
The aforementioned surface high will slide over
the Ohio Valley and continue building, becoming quite strong in the
process. This will serve to keep us quite dry for the majority of
the period and keep the east-northeast surface flow locked in. A
tight pressure gradient on the south end of the high will result in
relatively gusty conditions along our immediate shoreline,
decreasing noticeably further inland.
Throughout the period, an upper trough will gradually detach from
the northern stream with a cutoff upper low forming between the
Southwest US and Southern Plains. At the surface, long-range
guidance indicates that a surface low will form somewhere in the
western Gulf of Mexico, though placement and timing both remain
somewhat uncertain. The GFS appears to favor a low developing Friday
farther south in the Gulf, while the Euro favors a low developing
along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Both solutions paint different
pictures as a low center closer to the coastline would increase our
rain totals putting us comfortably under the rain shield, while a
center more to our south would lower rain totals. Regardless, both
models keep the warm front well to the south of our coastline which
would suppress the severe weather threat.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
Our marine zones will be the main focus of this forecast as
less than ideal boating conditions are expected for the majority of
the week. A brief lull in winds and seas is forecast to occur Monday
through Tuesday morning as northeasterly winds become gentle and
seas weaken to 2 to 3 feet. This lull will be short lived as high
pressure to our north strengthens with winds freshening late
Tuesday. An increase to a strong breeze, perhaps near gale force, is
expected as early as Thursday morning lasting through the weekend
with seas noticeably building as well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
Cool and dry conditions are expected for the next several days with
northerly winds becoming northeasterly as surface high pressure
settles over the Southeast CONUS. There are currently no fire
weather concerns for at least the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 956 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Heavy rain is done. The next hydrologically significant rainfall
is not expected until next weekend.
So for now, we are watching riverine response to the 1 to 3
inches of rain that fell on Sunday across a large portion of the
Florida Big Bend, with local amounts of 4 to 5 inches over Liberty
and inland Gulf Counties. Coastal rivers were already running
high from the heavy rain a week ago, so this new round of rain
will keep coastal rivers running high from Panama City all the way
around through Taylor County. It is possible that a river or two
could touch minor flood stage. The latest river forecast for
brings the Aucilla at Lamont back above flood, after only recently
dipping beneath flood stage. Other rivers to watch will be the
Saint Marks, Econfina, and Fenholloway.
The next round of rain is forecast starting around Friday,
possibly persisting into next weekend. There is a wide range of
possible outcomes for how much rain may fall, so it will be worth
checking back in a few days. Coastal rivers will still be running
high as we head into the next rain event 5-7 days out.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 57 34 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 58 38 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 55 32 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 55 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 55 33 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 34 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 58 39 60 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon
for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Haner