FXUS62 KTBW 111235
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
735 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quieter day on tap to kick off the work week today as high pressure
continues building into the state with cooler and drier conditions
in the wake of Sunday's cold front. Area temps as of around 5 AM
this morning are about 5-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours
ago, with the greatest differences over the Nature Coast and areas
north of I-4. Breezier northerly winds have set up across the
area as well and will continue through today with gusty conditions
likely this afternoon before tapering off tonight after sunset.
Mostly sunny skies are expected, however, continued cold air
advection will limit afternoon highs from around 60 north up to
around 70 south, about 10-15 degrees below typical temps for this
time of year. With the expected drop off in winds overnight,
expect the below normal theme to continue with lows dropping into
the mid to upper 30s for Nature Coast locations, lower to mid 40s
for central locations away from the immediate coast, and upper 40s
to around 50 for southern locations including the central and
southern immediate coastal vicinities. Patchy frost will be
possible across Nature Coast locations particularly where winds
drop off the most.

The trailing surface high behind the front then slides east and
settles over the E. U.S. on Tuesday with the frontal boundary
becoming stationary over the N Caribbean, allowing a warming trend
to ensue on Tuesday as winds gradually veer out of the E/NE allowing
Atlantic moisture to work across the peninsula, gradually modifying
the current cooler drier air mass filtering into the state. Temps
return to more average values through the remainder of the period
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Rain-free
conditions continue into mid week as zonal W/SW flow remains over
the area before impulses embedded within the flow interact with
the remnant boundary as it gradually lifts back north into the S
gulf during the mid to late week time frame bringing a chance of
showers back into the area toward the end of the work week and
into the weekend. Similar to previous forecast cycles, uncertainty
remains regarding the outlook for the latter part of the forecast
period, mainly centered around how guidance handles the evolution
of a southern stream disturbance aloft progged to move east into
the southern U.S./N Gulf Coast region this weekend. While
differences remain in available solutions, overall trend of a wave
of low pressure developing along the lingering surface boundary
over the central or eastern gulf over the weekend continues, which
would most likely push across the peninsula with an uptick in
rain chances. For now continue to advertise PoPs mainly in the
30-40 percent range for the late week through weekend period as
details become clearer through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions through the period with gusty winds out of the
northwest through the daytime hours.

 &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Gusty advisory level northerly winds and building seas expected
today as high pressure builds over the waters from the north in
the wake of the recent cold front. Winds gradually diminish
slightly and veer northeast into Tuesday but remain elevated near
cautionary levels. Gradient remains in place through much of the
week supporting continued cautionary to advisory level E/NE winds
with rain chances returning for the latter half of the week as the
remnant boundary slowly lifts back north across the waters before
uncertainty increases late in the week, however gusty winds and
elevated seas along with returning rain chances later in the week
remain the main features.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure building into the state today will continue to support
gusty northerly winds with a cooler and drier air mass filtering into
the area. Some areas may approach critical RH values this afternoon
for a few hours, however, widespread long duration Red Flag
conditions are not currently expected. Winds veer out of the E/NE
on Tuesday with moisture recovering as Atlantic moisture works into
the area through the remainder of the period. Enhanced E/NE flow with
periods of gustiness likely through the week with rain chances
returning over the latter half of the week and into the weekend as
the potential for unsettled weather increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  47  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  70  51  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  66  46  72  59 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  66  47  73  60 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  64  37  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  63  51  69  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close