FXUS62 KTBW 020134 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 834 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for Highlands County through Monday afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across the area tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. - Gusty winds over the coastal waters will continue to cause rough marine conditions through Monday night. && .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Rather complex pattern over the Florida peninsula with a mid level circulation over the central interior Florida peninsula this evening, and an additional U/L disturbance over the southeast Gulf. The mid level low will drift west overnight, and is expected then to retrograde southwest on Monday. Combination of strong surface high pressure near the mid Atlantic coast and remnant frontal boundary across south Florida/Florida Straits is creating a rather tight pressure gradient across the forecast area with gusty east winds. The U/L energy has overridden said frontal boundary with strong broad scale lift across the region in a deep tropical airmass as seen on W/V imagery. TBW 2/00Z sounding indicated 1.75 inch PCPW, which is actually down from this mornings sounding. The strong overrunning has generated numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Florida peninsula, with the bulk of the activity centered across the eastern/southern interior portion of the peninsula. After a pause in activity this evening (with the exception of the nature coast where showers persist), showers and isolated thunderstorms will redevelop overnight across west central and southwest Florida with locally heavy rain possible. A flood watch is in effect for Highlands county through Monday afternoon, where the best potential for excessive rainfall/flooding exists. However, will need to monitor overall trends the remainder of the night and early tomorrow as the mid level low retrogrades across the forecast area. Overall dynamics may shift enough for excessive rainfall to develop on the east side of the mid level low tonight and tomorrow, which would extend the threat for excessive rainfall further into the TBW CWA to about the Bradenton area and south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 A shortwave continues to move across the southeast and Florida this afternoon with a surface trough also trying to develop over the eastern Gulf. These two features will continue to shift eastward through the rest of today and tonight, with increased rainfall coverage expected across the state. As we have seen so far today, most of this has been in the form of showers, but the presence of the shortwave has allowed some thunderstorms to develop and we can generally expect a similar trend into tomorrow. The severe weather threat is rather low with weak instability in place, but there continues to be a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and minor flooding for any location that might receive several inches of rain in a shorter period of time. Due to the rainfall that has already fallen and the additional rainfall expected, a Flood Watch has been issued for Highlands County until tomorrow afternoon. We will have to see if additional counties need to be added, but for now, rainfall amounts have not been high enough. The shortwave will slow over the state tomorrow into Tuesday, keeping increased rain chances in the forecast. Then for mid-week, a pair of disturbance will rotate through the central part of the country, with the second one eventually pushing a cold front across Florida late in the week. As of now, it looks like this boundary will bring us some drier air for next weekend, and maybe some slightly cooler air. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Variable CIGs overnight at all terminals, with initial CIGs around 100-150 with pockets of MVFR CIGs 015-025. After midnight more widespread MVFR CIGs will develop 015-025 and LCL IFR CIGs 005-008. Increasing rain chances overnight with areas of MVFR VSBYs 3-5SM, with IFR VSBYs 1/2-1SM in locally heavy rain, with the best chance for heavy rain at PGD/FMY/RSW. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels will remain over the waters through the next couple of days with increased coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms as well. Wind speeds will then subside Tuesday through the rest of the week with no further headlines expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Deep moisture will hold across the area through the next couple of days, bringing increased coverage of showers along with a few thunderstorms. No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 70 81 71 / 70 50 30 20 FMY 79 71 82 71 / 80 60 60 20 GIF 78 70 82 70 / 70 70 50 30 SRQ 79 69 81 70 / 80 50 40 10 BKV 78 68 83 68 / 70 50 30 20 SPG 78 71 79 72 / 70 50 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Highlands. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery