FXUS63 KTOP 140900
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
300 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny skies and above normal temperatures are expected through
  Saturday.

- Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into
  Monday.

- There may be a chance for light snow showers Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning. Though confidence is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Early this morning an upper level trough was located across the mid
and lower MS River Valley. A second upper level trough was located
just off the west coast of the US. A surface ridge of high pressure
was located across the central and southern high Plains.

Today through Saturday:

The H5 trough off the west coast will move onshore Tonight and then
translate east into the Great Basin and southern CA. Expect a slight
warming trend into Saturday as a downstream H5 ridge amplifies
across the Plains and then shifts east across the east central US by
Friday night.

The upper trough across the western US will shear apart late
Saturday with the northern stream H5 trough moving east into the
northern high Plains and the southern stream section of the H5
trough digging south-southeast into northwest Mexico. Stronger
southwest flow across the the central Rockies will cause a lee
surface trough to deepen Friday into Saturday. Southerly winds
will help temperatures to warm into the mid 60s on Friday, with
highs reaching the mid to upper 60s on Saturday.

Saturday night through Sunday:

As the northern stream H5 trough shifts east across the northern
Plains into the upper Midwest, low-level CAA across the northern
Plains will cause a surface front to push southeast across most of
the CWA Friday night into Sunday morning. There may be a few rain
showers along or just north of the front late Saturday night into
Sunday. Late Sunday afternoon the surface front will become
stationary across the southern counties of the CWA.

Sunday night through Tuesday night:

The southern stream H5 trough will lift northeast out of northern
Mexico into western TX by 12Z MON by an upstream kicker H5 trough
moving onshore across northern CA. An 850mb low will develop across
the TX PNHDL and the strong southerly 850mb winds of 40 to 50 KTS
across the southern Plains will advect richer gulf moisture
northward across the stationary front across the southern
counties of the CWA. The resulting isentropic lift and stronger
ascent ahead of a 90 KT H5 jet max will cause widespread rain
and elevated thunderstorms to develop across the CWA during the
night. The rain and thunderstorms will continue through the day
on Monday as the H5 low tracks north-northeast across western
OK into north central KS by 00Z TUE. The surface warm front will
lift northward during the the day on Monday, up to the NE
border, but due to the widespread rain and elevated
thunderstorms the chances for surface based storms look low. The
vertical windshear will be strong on Monday but low and mid
level lapse rates will not be steep. Thus instability looks
marginal for severe thunderstorms on Monday. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Monday night the H5 low will continue to track northeast into IA and
fill a bit. A 700mb dry slot and surface front moving east of the
area will provide a break from the precipitation on Tuesday. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the 50s. The H5 trough across the western US will
dig southeast into the southwestern US late Tuesday.

Wednesday through Thursday:

The H5 trough across the southwest US will amplify into a closed H5
low and will begin to lift northeast across southern NM into west
TX early Wednesday. As the upper low approaches DCVA and
isentropic lift will cause light rain to redevelop and move
northward across the CWA. The upper low will then track
northeast across east central KS by Thursday morning. Strong
low-level CAA on the west side of the H5 low will cause the
light rain to mix with or change to light snow late Wednesday
night across the CWA. Too early to give any amounts but there
could be a dusting of snow in some areas. There are differences
in the extended range models. The GFS is more progressive and
less amplified with the upper low. The GFS solution shows
stronger low-level CAA Wednesday night, which would change the
light rain over to snow. The ECMWF is slower lifting the upper
low northeast across east central KS. The ECMWF is warmer
Wednesday night with most of the area only seeing lows in the
mid 30s to around 40 degree, which would keep more of a light
rain precipitation type. However, the TROWAL looks more
developed on the ECMWF model and there will be cold air
advection through the day on Thursday, with temperatures slowly
falling into the 30s, which will cause the rain to change over
to snow across north central and northeast KS. If the ECMWF
verifies the light snow and rain may continue into Thursday
night. I'm sure the extended range models will change over the
next several runs. The Canadian model is in more agreement with
the GFS model.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Stratus has exited to the east of the terminals and dry air
continues to work east into the area which along with a
partially mixed BL overnight minimize the chances for any fog to
form. Winds will relax through the morning and into the
afternoon before gradually becoming more southerly and remain
below 10kts through the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake