FXUS63 KTOP 111743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1143 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023


- Near to above seasonal normal temperatures through the
  extended forecast.

- Most of the area will see dry conditions through the extended
  forecast. There may be a 20 percent chance of rain across
  portions of north central KS Wednesday afternoon into Thursday


Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Early this morning, a broad upper level trough was located across
the east central US. A second upper level trough was located across
central Canada, digging southeast into the northern high Plains.

At the surface, a weak surface trough extended from southwest IA,
southwest across north central KS into Northwest TX. Winds behind
the surface trough, the winds were from west-northwest.

Today through Tonight:

The northwesterly mid-level flow will become more zonal through
the day. West-northwest winds this morning will back more to
the west and southwest this afternoon. Skies will be mostly
sunny with a few high clouds possible. Highs Today will reach
the lower to mid 50s.

The H5 trough across the northern
high Plains will dig east-southeast into the upper Midwest and
amplify Tonight. The resulting low-level CAA across the northern
Plains will cause a ridge of high pressure to build southward
across the Plains into KS during the early morning hours of

Tuesday through Tuesday:

The center of the surface ridge will will shift east-southeast into
northern MO through the day. Northeast winds and weak low-level CAA
will cause Highs to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler, with highs in the
lower 40s along the NE border and upper 40s in the far southern

An upper trough across OR will dig south-southeast into southern NV
and amplify within the southern stream jet, forming a closed upper
low across western AZ Tuesday night. northeast winds across the CWA
will veer to the east.

Wednesday through Thursday night:

The southern stream H5 trough will slowly track into the the
southern high Plains of west TX late Thursday night. As the H5 low
tracks east across NM, a surface trough will deepen across the
southern high Plains. 850mb moisture transport northward across west
central TX into western OK and the eastern TX PNHLD will provide for
stronger isentropic lift for light rain across southwest KS. The
WAA/isentropic lift will spread east into west central and
central KS late Wednesday afternoon, and scattered showers may
develop WED afternoon just west of the CWA. A few of these
showers may move into portions of north central KS. The ECMWF
keeps any measurable rainfall west of the CWA. The GFS develops
the weak isentropic lift a bit farther east, which could
provide the far western counties with 0.01 to 0.05 inches of QPF
starting late Wednesday into Thursday. Overnight lows across
north central KS should only drop into the mid 30s, so I'm not
expecting any freezing drizzle or freezing rain Wednesday night
into Thursday morning across north central KS. However, most of
the CWA should stay dry but there may be more cloud cover
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will
reach the mid to upper 40s, with upper 40s to lower 50s on

Friday through Monday:

The upper low over west TX will dig southeast to the north central
Gulf of Mexico and the DCVA ahead of the upper low will remain
well south of the CWA. Temperatures will warm into the lower to
mid 50s next weekend. An upper level ridge will shift east
across the Plains providing for dry conditions.


Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Only a veering of
the winds to the north is anticipated overnight around 09-10Z
time frame as a weak but dry cold front enters the area. Only
expect a deck of mid clouds but no aviation hazards associated.