FXUS63 KTOP 082333 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 633 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower or storm may develop through the late afternoon. - Quiet weather is forecast for the rest of the period with temperatures warming next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The upper low was slowing over over the OH river valley per the 18Z water vapor imagery with a weak perturbation rotating around the back side of the low across northeast KS. Weak ridging remained over the northern plains and into the desert southwest. Surface obs showed high pressure over the Great Lakes with a ridge axis extending southwest into the central and southern high plains. A diffuse surface boundary was noted across east TX and southern AR. There may still be an isolated shower or thunderstorm pop up in the heat of the day. Models show little if any inhibition to a surface parcel becoming buoyant. But deep layer shear remains very weak so any convection that forms is likely to be of the ordinary kind. any shower activity should diminish shortly after sunset as the boundary layer begins to cool. Good conditions for radiational cooling look to set up tonight with clearing skies and light winds. There is not a lot of dry air advection progged from the models. So there could be some shallow ground fog form around sunrise. Think this is most likely to be in the low lying areas near bodies of water like the KS river valley. Quiet weather is forecast for Friday through Sunday as ridging aloft and at the surface dominate the weather pattern over the forecast area. Good insolation should help push highs into the lower and middle 80s. Rain chances are forecast to remain less than 10 percent for next week as the forecast area remains in between a system lifting from the gulf coast into the Ohio Valley and energy lifting into the northern plains late in the forecast period. Models support the blend forecast of temperatures warming through the week. Wednesday looks to be the warmest when a few locations could flirt with 90 for a high. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 A few showers and storms may continue to impact KMHK early this period, but rain should dissipate around sunset. VFR is expected for much of the period, with the exception of a chance for shallow fog early Friday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Teefey