FXUS63 KTOP 111743 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1143 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to above seasonal normal temperatures through the extended forecast. - Most of the area will see dry conditions through the extended forecast. There may be a 20 percent chance of rain across portions of north central KS Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Early this morning, a broad upper level trough was located across the east central US. A second upper level trough was located across central Canada, digging southeast into the northern high Plains. At the surface, a weak surface trough extended from southwest IA, southwest across north central KS into Northwest TX. Winds behind the surface trough, the winds were from west-northwest. Today through Tonight: The northwesterly mid-level flow will become more zonal through the day. West-northwest winds this morning will back more to the west and southwest this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny with a few high clouds possible. Highs Today will reach the lower to mid 50s. The H5 trough across the northern high Plains will dig east-southeast into the upper Midwest and amplify Tonight. The resulting low-level CAA across the northern Plains will cause a ridge of high pressure to build southward across the Plains into KS during the early morning hours of Tuesday. Tuesday through Tuesday: The center of the surface ridge will will shift east-southeast into northern MO through the day. Northeast winds and weak low-level CAA will cause Highs to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler, with highs in the lower 40s along the NE border and upper 40s in the far southern counties. An upper trough across OR will dig south-southeast into southern NV and amplify within the southern stream jet, forming a closed upper low across western AZ Tuesday night. northeast winds across the CWA will veer to the east. Wednesday through Thursday night: The southern stream H5 trough will slowly track into the the southern high Plains of west TX late Thursday night. As the H5 low tracks east across NM, a surface trough will deepen across the southern high Plains. 850mb moisture transport northward across west central TX into western OK and the eastern TX PNHLD will provide for stronger isentropic lift for light rain across southwest KS. The WAA/isentropic lift will spread east into west central and central KS late Wednesday afternoon, and scattered showers may develop WED afternoon just west of the CWA. A few of these showers may move into portions of north central KS. The ECMWF keeps any measurable rainfall west of the CWA. The GFS develops the weak isentropic lift a bit farther east, which could provide the far western counties with 0.01 to 0.05 inches of QPF starting late Wednesday into Thursday. Overnight lows across north central KS should only drop into the mid 30s, so I'm not expecting any freezing drizzle or freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning across north central KS. However, most of the CWA should stay dry but there may be more cloud cover Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 40s, with upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday. Friday through Monday: The upper low over west TX will dig southeast to the north central Gulf of Mexico and the DCVA ahead of the upper low will remain well south of the CWA. Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 50s next weekend. An upper level ridge will shift east across the Plains providing for dry conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Only a veering of the winds to the north is anticipated overnight around 09-10Z time frame as a weak but dry cold front enters the area. Only expect a deck of mid clouds but no aviation hazards associated. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Drake