FXUS64 KTSA 310210
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Storms along the main frontal boundary currently across Osage/Pawnee
counties also extend SW through C OK. Additional storms across NE OK,
with new development across SE OK are within a strengthening low level
jet. Strong to severe storms will continue through the evening, with
potential continuing into the overnight hours across SE OK and NW AR.
The tornado potential has lessened some, though embedded supercell potential
will continue within the main line into the overnight hours. We have locally
added several counties across SE OK into the tornado watch which runs through
midnight. Changes to the ongoing forecast have been minimal, as first period
PoPs are representative. Cooler temperatures to move in behind the front
late tonight, thus overnight lows look reasonable as well.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.




&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Much cooler and quieter weather will settle into the area for
Thursday (Halloween) with northerly flow. High temperatures will
range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures for Trick- or-
Treating will be in the 50s with no rain expected. Friday will
warm up into the lower 70s but also be dry.

Our next storm cycle will begin Saturday as a deep and persistent
upper level settles into the southwest with ridging in the
southeast. This will promote moist and unstable southwest flow
over the area for several days. Multiple waves of rain and
thunderstorms will move through beginning Saturday afternoon.
There is some indication that severe weather may be possible with
the initial wave of storms Saturday, but if so, it would likely be
marginal.

The main issue will be the copious rainfall that is
expected Saturday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is still
uncertain with the exact placement and timing of individual waves,
but the big picture is of higher confidence. Most areas can expect
total rainfall in the 2-6" range. Some model guidance shows
localized higher totals if storms preferentially track over one
area more often. These details will be straightened out in the
days ahead, but the big picture and key takeaway is that a
dramatic pattern change will be unfolding with significant rains
ahead. Localized flash flooding and minor river flooding would be
expected given this amount of rainfall, with potentially greater
impacts depending on which basins are hit hardest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Line of strong to severe storms currently moving into portions of
northeast Oklahoma, will likely impact KBVO around 01Z and the
KTUL/KRVS area shortly before 03Z. Brief LIFR conditions appear
likely with very heavy rain/low visibilities around 1/2 mile.
Strong wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots also likely along the leading
edge. Latest CAMS suggest line of storms will persist overnight,
along southeast moving front, impacting NW AR/SE OK in the 05-07Z
time frame and at KFSM around 08Z. Still some uncertainties regarding
how long low clouds will linger behind front into Thursday, especially
across northwest Arkansas which may not clear until Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  66  44  74 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   61  71  50  75 / 100  30   0   0
MLC   54  68  46  77 / 100   0  10  10
BVO   46  65  36  75 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   52  67  40  74 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   56  65  43  71 /  90  20   0   0
MKO   52  66  44  73 / 100   0   0   0
MIO   50  63  40  72 /  90   0   0   0
F10   49  66  41  75 /  90   0   0  10
HHW   60  73  52  74 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12