FXUS64 KTSA 111112
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
512 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Another mild and dry day is in store under NW flow aloft... with
plentiful sunshine and highs in the 50s/ approaching 60 in southeast
OK. Winds will remain fairly light out of the south/ southwest. A
limited, localized fire weather threat may develop for a few hours
this afternoon for portions of NW AR where winds could be a tad
higher (up to 15-20 mph) and min RH falls to near 30%. Otherwise,
the forecast continues to be quiet today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

The long term remains very similar to previous forecasts, primarily
influenced by the trajectory of a desert SW upper low. Moisture
begins to spread northward into Oklahoma ahead of this system on
Tuesday, with clouds increasing from west to east during the day.
The best moisture return (and highest precip potential) is still
projected to occur over western Oklahoma and the panhandles region
with this system. Far western portions of our FA could see some low
rain chances Wednesday, but opted to keep PoPs below mentionable
since latest trends keep QPF further west. The upper low eventually
makes its way into the southern plains late in the week.
Unfortunately, uncertainty remains regarding the track of the low,
but most guidance maintains a more southern track which would tend
to limit precip chances for our area. As a result, stuck pretty
close to NBM until details become more clear. This keeps low chance
PoPs generally restricted to along and south of I-40 Fri/ Sat. Much
of the forecast area is running 20-50% of normal precipitation the
last 30 days... so any rainfall would be welcome. This system
departs late in the weekend with dry NW flow resuming.

Afternoon temps remain nearly steady in the mid-upper 50s this week,
which is slightly above average for this time of year. Lows
generally remain in the 30s through the period. Otherwise, no
impactful weather is expected over the coming days, and any
notable threat of winter weather remains elusive at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites
through the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  33  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  27  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  31  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  33  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  32  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  30  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
F10   58  33  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   59  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...23