FXUS64 KTSA 310210 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 910 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Storms along the main frontal boundary currently across Osage/Pawnee counties also extend SW through C OK. Additional storms across NE OK, with new development across SE OK are within a strengthening low level jet. Strong to severe storms will continue through the evening, with potential continuing into the overnight hours across SE OK and NW AR. The tornado potential has lessened some, though embedded supercell potential will continue within the main line into the overnight hours. We have locally added several counties across SE OK into the tornado watch which runs through midnight. Changes to the ongoing forecast have been minimal, as first period PoPs are representative. Cooler temperatures to move in behind the front late tonight, thus overnight lows look reasonable as well. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Much cooler and quieter weather will settle into the area for Thursday (Halloween) with northerly flow. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures for Trick- or- Treating will be in the 50s with no rain expected. Friday will warm up into the lower 70s but also be dry. Our next storm cycle will begin Saturday as a deep and persistent upper level settles into the southwest with ridging in the southeast. This will promote moist and unstable southwest flow over the area for several days. Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms will move through beginning Saturday afternoon. There is some indication that severe weather may be possible with the initial wave of storms Saturday, but if so, it would likely be marginal. The main issue will be the copious rainfall that is expected Saturday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is still uncertain with the exact placement and timing of individual waves, but the big picture is of higher confidence. Most areas can expect total rainfall in the 2-6" range. Some model guidance shows localized higher totals if storms preferentially track over one area more often. These details will be straightened out in the days ahead, but the big picture and key takeaway is that a dramatic pattern change will be unfolding with significant rains ahead. Localized flash flooding and minor river flooding would be expected given this amount of rainfall, with potentially greater impacts depending on which basins are hit hardest. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Line of strong to severe storms currently moving into portions of northeast Oklahoma, will likely impact KBVO around 01Z and the KTUL/KRVS area shortly before 03Z. Brief LIFR conditions appear likely with very heavy rain/low visibilities around 1/2 mile. Strong wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots also likely along the leading edge. Latest CAMS suggest line of storms will persist overnight, along southeast moving front, impacting NW AR/SE OK in the 05-07Z time frame and at KFSM around 08Z. Still some uncertainties regarding how long low clouds will linger behind front into Thursday, especially across northwest Arkansas which may not clear until Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 51 66 44 74 / 100 0 0 0 FSM 61 71 50 75 / 100 30 0 0 MLC 54 68 46 77 / 100 0 10 10 BVO 46 65 36 75 / 100 0 0 0 FYV 52 67 40 74 / 100 10 0 0 BYV 56 65 43 71 / 90 20 0 0 MKO 52 66 44 73 / 100 0 0 0 MIO 50 63 40 72 / 90 0 0 0 F10 49 66 41 75 / 90 0 0 10 HHW 60 73 52 74 / 90 30 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...12