FXUS65 KTWC 080850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures through the weekend, with high
temperatures right around normal. Temperatures warm back up to above
normal levels early to mid next week, with another brief cool down
late next week. Dry conditions persist through the middle of next


.DISCUSSION...A disturbance moving east across the Great Basin will
result in cooler temperatures across southeast Arizona through the
weekend, with high temperatures today lowering to a few degrees
above normal and then right around normal Saturday and Sunday. Any
moisture associated with this system will remain well north of our
forecast area. There will also be an increase in west to northwest
winds with the passage of system this afternoon, into the 10-17 mph
range especially east of Tucson.

Behind this system, surface high pressure will build down the front
range of the Rockies into west Texas. This will result in elevated
north to northeast winds Saturday and then breezy east-southeast
winds Saturday night through midday Sunday. Wind speeds will be in
the 12-20 mph range Saturday and 15-25 mph with higher gusts
Saturday night and Sunday in those locations susceptible to easterly
winds. Colder morning low temperatures are expected this weekend,
with readings bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the
lower desert locations from Tucson westward. Winds will play a
factor in the morning lows Sunday, with those locations where the
winds stay elevated overnight warmer than locations sheltered from
the winds. Sheltered locations may see temperatures briefly dip down
into the lower to mid 30s Sunday morning.

Shortwave ridging takes place late Sunday into Tuesday, with high
temperatures warming back up to 3-7 degrees above normal. Another
system then moves through the Great Basin and Four Corners Wednesday
and Thursday of next week. The ensembles and deterministic models
all keep the main impacts of this system to our north, with just a
10-20 percent chance of precipitation in the White Mountains.
However, this system will lower temperatures back down to near
normal levels during the second half of next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z.
SKC-SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC
wind WLY/NWLY at 8-15 kts between 08/18Z and 09/02Z. SFC wind less
than 12 kts and variable in direction at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be near normal through the
weekend, before warming back up to 3-7 degrees above normal early to
mid next week. Min RH values today will be in the 15-25 percent
range in the valleys and 22-32 percent in the mountains. Drier air
overspreads the area Saturday into Sunday, continuing through mid
next week, with min RH values of 7-15 percent in the valleys and 15-
25 percent in the mountains. Elevated 20-foot winds from the west to
northwest at 12-17 mph are expected today mainly to the east of
Tucson. Winds then shift to the northeast at 12-20 mph Saturday,
with breezy east-southeast winds Saturday night and Sunday at 15-25
mph and higher gusts in locations exposed to easterly winds. Lighter
wind speeds are then expected much of next week. Dry conditions will
persist over the next week, except for a slight chance of
precipitation in the White Mountains next Wednesday and Thursday.






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