FXUS65 KTWC 292035 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 135 PM MST Tue Apr 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures continue this afternoon, then a warming trend through the end of the work week with above normal afternoon temperatures returning by Thursday. A weather system will move through this weekend bringing breezy to windy conditions winds and fire weather concerns as well as cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies across the forecast area this afternoon with the exception of the White Mountains where skies are partly cloudy. The region is under the influence of an upper level low across northern Arizona. This system is continuing to result in below normal temperatures this afternoon with dry conditions this far south. A few build-ups and a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon across northern Greenlee County where higher moisture levels and orographic lift will help. Breezes will continue this afternoon but remain below critical thresholds for fire weather. Shortwave ridging moves in for Wednesday into Thursday. This will allow a warming trend in temperatures as highs on Wednesday warm to seasonable levels and then an additional few degrees on Thursday to slightly above normal levels. Expect continued afternoon breezes/gustiness each day. A weak cut-off upper low will move into the region on Friday. This system won't have much in the way of sensible weather changes in temperatures but there will be just enough moisture for a slight chance (less than 20%) of showers for the White Mountains. Dry conditions for the rest of the region. Afternoon breezes in the 10 to 20 mph range continue Friday with some higher gusts. A more significant longwave trough will approach the region on Saturday, with an upper low cutting off thereafter as it pushes into the lower Colorado River Valley Sunday and continuing to hang around into Monday, though there is some variance on the timing/placement by Monday in the ensemble guidance. This will translate to an uptick in winds on Saturday, though still remaining below critical thresholds for fire weather and then stronger and gusty winds area- wide Sunday, which looks to be the day with the strongest winds. If these trends continue, Sunday is a day that some wind or fire headlines could be needed. While there are differences on the placement of the system Monday, lingering gusty winds are expected, especially east of Tucson. This system will usher in much cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday with the forecast high of 75 in Tucson Monday. For reference the normal high for Monday is 88 degrees. Gradual warming is expected thereafter. && .AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z. FEW clouds 10k-12k ft AGL this afternoon, otherwise SKC through the period. SFC winds SWLY/WLY this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. The strongest winds will be in the vicinity of KDUG and KSAD. After 30/02Z, SFC winds will slowly diminish to less than 10 kts and mainly terrain driven. SFC winds aft 30/19Z then become SWLY/WLY around 10 kts with gusts up to around 20 kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Winds this afternoon of 10-15 mph with the strongest winds in portions of Cochise County and the Gila River Valley. Expect similar speeds for the rest of the week with the occasional gust in the afternoon. Temperatures will trend warmer by the end of the week. There is a slight chance (<15%) for very light precipitation and a rumble of thunder in the White Mountains this afternoon. Looking ahead to the weekend, another storm system approaching from the Pacific will cause windy conditions with increasing potential for fire weather concerns. At this time, the strongest winds look to be Sunday when the greatest potential to see widespread critical fire weather conditions is expected. Residual gusty winds will continue especially east of Tucson on Monday as much cooler temperatures move in area-wide. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson