FXUS65 KTWC 080850 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 150 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures through the weekend, with high temperatures right around normal. Temperatures warm back up to above normal levels early to mid next week, with another brief cool down late next week. Dry conditions persist through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A disturbance moving east across the Great Basin will result in cooler temperatures across southeast Arizona through the weekend, with high temperatures today lowering to a few degrees above normal and then right around normal Saturday and Sunday. Any moisture associated with this system will remain well north of our forecast area. There will also be an increase in west to northwest winds with the passage of system this afternoon, into the 10-17 mph range especially east of Tucson. Behind this system, surface high pressure will build down the front range of the Rockies into west Texas. This will result in elevated north to northeast winds Saturday and then breezy east-southeast winds Saturday night through midday Sunday. Wind speeds will be in the 12-20 mph range Saturday and 15-25 mph with higher gusts Saturday night and Sunday in those locations susceptible to easterly winds. Colder morning low temperatures are expected this weekend, with readings bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the lower desert locations from Tucson westward. Winds will play a factor in the morning lows Sunday, with those locations where the winds stay elevated overnight warmer than locations sheltered from the winds. Sheltered locations may see temperatures briefly dip down into the lower to mid 30s Sunday morning. Shortwave ridging takes place late Sunday into Tuesday, with high temperatures warming back up to 3-7 degrees above normal. Another system then moves through the Great Basin and Four Corners Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The ensembles and deterministic models all keep the main impacts of this system to our north, with just a 10-20 percent chance of precipitation in the White Mountains. However, this system will lower temperatures back down to near normal levels during the second half of next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z. SKC-SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 8-15 kts between 08/18Z and 09/02Z. SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, before warming back up to 3-7 degrees above normal early to mid next week. Min RH values today will be in the 15-25 percent range in the valleys and 22-32 percent in the mountains. Drier air overspreads the area Saturday into Sunday, continuing through mid next week, with min RH values of 7-15 percent in the valleys and 15- 25 percent in the mountains. Elevated 20-foot winds from the west to northwest at 12-17 mph are expected today mainly to the east of Tucson. Winds then shift to the northeast at 12-20 mph Saturday, with breezy east-southeast winds Saturday night and Sunday at 15-25 mph and higher gusts in locations exposed to easterly winds. Lighter wind speeds are then expected much of next week. Dry conditions will persist over the next week, except for a slight chance of precipitation in the White Mountains next Wednesday and Thursday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson