FNUS53 KAPX 301926
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
...Rain arrives this afternoon through tonight...
.DISCUSSION...Gusty southwest winds and very warm late October
temperatures continue this afternoon in advance of low pressure set
to cross the Great Lakes region later tonight into Thursday. Showers
ongoing across the eastern U.P. will gradually sag farther south
over much of northern lower MI this evening and overnight. Periods
of showers and gustiness prevail on Thursday as well with winds
eventually taking on a more westerly component Thursday evening and
northwesterly by late Thursday night. Below normal temperatures
anticipated Friday with highs back in the 40s.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-310815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.98 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Rain showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (665).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.16- 0.48 in.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....33-38...except around 40 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......24 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (653).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 30 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.11 in.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....42-47.
24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (846).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-310815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (89).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.50 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Rain showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 60-65 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (589).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.39 in.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39...except 42-47 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......24 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (482).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 30 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....45-50...except around 41 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (967).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
MIZ020-025>027-310815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (72).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.95 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Rain showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except around 61 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1079).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.21- 0.44 in.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....33-38...except around 41 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......25 degrees cooler...except 19 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (786).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 27 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.11 in.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max Temperature.....44-49.
24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler...except 18 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (734).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph decreasing to around 9
mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
MIZ031>033-310815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (85).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.38 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1190).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.34 in.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....34-39.
24 HR Trend......25 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (722).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 27 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max Temperature.....44-49.
24 HR Trend......21 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (683).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-310815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers until 2400. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Chance of rain showers after
2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (96).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.13 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (876).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.29 in.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
24 HR Trend......25 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (696).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 30 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....45-50.
24 HR Trend......22 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (810).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 24 mph decreasing to around 12
mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
MJG