FNUS53 KLBF 081117
FWFLBF
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western
and North Central for Nebraska
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
.DISCUSSION...
- UP FRONT KEY MESSAGE:
At least near-critical (if not localized critical) fire weather
conditions looking increasingly likely for especially the Sunday-
Monday time frame as southerly winds crank up ahead of approaching
low pressure (see day-by-day breakdown below for more).
- TODAY:
Other than the slightest chance for a rogue sprinkle in far east-
southeast counties late this afternoon, extremely high confidence
that the entire district stays dry today. Although minimum
relative humidity (RH) this afternoon will bottom out fairly low
(22-28% most of the area), fairly light winds sustained around 10
MPH (or less) out of the east to southeast will limit the fire
weather threat in most places. However, a bit breezier southerly
winds will set up over far west-central/northwest counties this
afternoon (sustained around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH).
- FRIDAY:
For the entire district as a whole, this will be the overall-
lightest wind day of the next several, with sustained speeds
mainly 10 MPH (or less) mainly out of the southwest. There is an
outside chance for a few late-day/evening thunderstorms far
northwest (especially Sheridan County area), but this is far from
a certainty.
- SATURDAY:
Although only modestly-breezy southerly wind speeds and somewhat
marginal RH will be the main limiting factors to a greater threat,
this is the first day of at least elevated fire weather concerns,
especially within the western half of the district where gusts of
at least 20-25 MPH are most favored.
- SUNDAY:
Concerns quickly ramp up for Sunday afternoon, as not only is RH
forecast to bottom out more solidly in the 15-20% range, but
southerly winds will be considerably stronger than Saturday with
sustained speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts at least 30-40 MPH. At
the very least, this is a solidly near-critical fire weather day
at this time.
- MONDAY:
Although a slight increase in low level moisture is currently
expected to slightly boost minimum afternoon RH slightly (closer
to 20-25%), another day of southerly winds gusting at least
25-35 MPH could easily promote at least near-critical
conditions.
- TUESDAY:
Confidence in "exact details" starts to wane by this Day 6 time
frame, but with a strong low pressure system expected to be on the
doorstep, at least elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns
could easily continue. Very preliminarily, RH is forecast to drop
to at least 20-25% especially in the western half of the district,
with southerly winds gusting at least 25-30 MPH.
.DISCUSSION...
NEZ204-082330-
Eastern Panhandle/Crescent Lake NWR-
517 AM MDT Thu May 8 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....73-78.
24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........22 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Mixing height.......400-5500 ft AGL until 1200, then 5900-9500 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....41-46.
24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........88 percent.
24 hr trend......18 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Mixing height.......400-9200 ft AGL until 2400, then 400-600 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....78-83.
24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........17 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......400-5000 ft AGL until 1200, then 5900-10800 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
80s. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
South winds around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid
80s. South winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
.WEDNESDAY...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s.
$$
NEZ210-082330-
Frenchman Basin-
517 AM MDT Thu May 8 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........24 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......North around 5 mph shifting to the southeast in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......400-5200 ft AGL until 1200, then 6400-9200 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........92 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southeast around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Mixing height.......400-8300 ft AGL until 2400, then 400-500 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........18 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest around 5 mph shifting to the south in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Mixing height.......400-5000 ft AGL until 1200, then 5900-8700 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
80s. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 80s.
South winds around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 80s.
South winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
upper 80s.
.WEDNESDAY...Not as warm. Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s.
$$
NEZ206-082330-
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
617 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........23 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......400-6600 ft AGL until 1200, then 7200-10200 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....43-48.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Max humidity........86 percent.
24 hr trend......20 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Mixing height.......400-9500 ft AGL until 2400, then 400-500 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....80-85.
24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........16 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......400-5700 ft AGL until 1200, then 6300-9900 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
80s. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
South winds around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower
80s. South winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
.WEDNESDAY...Not as warm. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
$$
NEZ219-082330-
Loess Plains-
617 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........25 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......North around 5 mph shifting to the east in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......400-6400 ft AGL until 1200, then 7600-9700 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........92 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southeast around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Mixing height.......400-8700 ft AGL until 2400, then 400-500 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the south
after midnight.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........19 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West around 5 mph shifting to the south in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Mixing height.......400-5100 ft AGL until 1200, then 6000-9000 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph shifting to the south in the
afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
80s. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 80s. South
winds around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 80s.
South winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
upper 80s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
upper 70s.
$$
NEZ208-082330-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-
617 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........22 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West around 5 mph shifting to the southeast in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Mixing height.......400-5700 ft AGL until 1200, then 6600-10100 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....46-51.
24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........78 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Mixing height.......400-9800 ft AGL until 2400, then 400-600 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....83-88.
24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........17 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......400-5600 ft AGL until 1200, then 6100-10300 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid
80s. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
South winds around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s. South winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
.WEDNESDAY...Not as warm. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the
mid 70s.
$$
NEZ209-082330-
Loup Rivers Basin-
617 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........26 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......North around 5 mph shifting to the east in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......400-5900 ft AGL until 1200, then 7300-10100 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the east in the
afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....45-50.
24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........88 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southeast around 5 mph shifting to the south
after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Mixing height.......400-8900 ft AGL until 2400, then 400-500 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....81-86.
24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........18 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Mixing height.......300-5800 ft AGL until 1200, then 6200-9600 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
80s. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
South winds around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower
80s. South winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80.
$$
Pfannkuch