FNUS21 KWNS 101624
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota
into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying
fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this
afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity,
which may not fall below 20%.

Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/

...Synopsis...
Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today
and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists
farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop
of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening
a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty
southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens,
southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and
western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of
low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been
mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall.
With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear
likely.

In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based
storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT
Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though
enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best
storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a
few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where
fuels could support some ignition potential.

...Southwest...
Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly
mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert
Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are
possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent
precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along
with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$