FNUS21 KWNS 151632
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed
shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This
should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon
along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread
critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical
conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis.

Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already
show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is
ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given
pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent,
several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are
possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast
as the warm front lifts northward with time.

..Wendt.. 04/15/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and
eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low
should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure
falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over
much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels
will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical
fire-weather conditions.

...Southern and central High Plains...
As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt
mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the
afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force
strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a
dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface
winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong
pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow
aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low,
falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and
receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry
surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical
fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of
the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX.

Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as
strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme
conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS
and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest
TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit
RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on
the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce
any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists
on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and
high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to
capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should
the dryline mix farther east.

...Missouri Valley...
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of
northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry
air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to
precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these
dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels
and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain
localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$